That ‘social distancing’ arose from a school science project appears to be an elaborate cover story for the fact the concept was lifted directly from China’s lockdown measures during SARS in 2003.
Sep 9, 2022·edited Sep 9, 2022Liked by Michael P Senger
Some trivia for the curious:
Robert Glass was at Sandia National Laboratories when his daughter wrote the code for the science fair project. The program was basically a probability algorithm. It produced odds of an event given a set of data. The program simulated the common cold in a school environment. Her argument was that based on the simulation the school should close for the winter during peak flu season.
What’s interesting is that it was the kind of programming Glass did at Sandia. The thing to note here is that Glass wasn’t just a friend to Hatchett and Mecher, he was also a fellow researcher at a lab known for its contribution to computational biology.
There’s a paper Glass co-authored with his wife in 2006 “Targeted Social Distancing Design for Pandemic Influenza” Emerging Infectious Diseases Vol 12 November 2006.
"Meanwhile, Goldenfeld and Maslov began modeling the effects of a lockdown on the entire state of Illinois. With little time to perfect their models, and flawed data available to them, they decided against modeling specific lockdown strategies, such as shutting down schools. Instead, they left the strategy vague—whatever it was, the model assumed it would reduce transmission of the virus by some factor. Assuming that the state would implement the strategy, they then asked, what would be the consequences of delaying implementation?"
...
On March 18, they sent the results to the governor’s office, along with a “strongly worded” memo that Ansell authored. “We both agreed the most important measure was for the governor to order the shelter-in-place,” says Ansell.
"For a few months last year, Nigel Goldenfeld and Sergei Maslov, a pair of physicists at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, were unlikely celebrities in their state’s COVID-19 pandemic response — that is, until everything went wrong."
The same people who say that lockdowns work never even stopped to question how China controlled the outbreak by only locking down Hubei despite cases having been reported in every province in China at that point. Seriously though, how TF do they explain the seemingly overnight stop of transmission in Beijing (despite over a 1000 reported cases on January 25, 2020) when Beijing never locked down? Same for Shanghai. It’s absolutely maddening.
Great post for those who want a deep dive into this history. Important, thanks! Masking and social distancing is a way of playing to people's deep psychological insecurities. It establishes those directing these as superior to the ordinary "germ laden" citizen. In case we as Americans failed to get the message from our governments, corporations, institutions - the message was elaborately, professionally telegraphed by Biden & Co at Independence Hall recently.
You are doing extremely important work. I don't even believe that the doomer cult saying everybody is equally guilty and spinning a global conspiracy is much more than fabrication to distract from work of journalists like you.
"Distancing" never made sense to me. A virus so small it can literally hang in still air for a couple weeks somehow won't travel further than a magical 6', won't affect someone while they are actively eating or drinking, won't attack them before an 8pm curfew, etc etc etc. Anyone who can critically think should have been able to figure out that something wasn't/isn't right about this whole mess from the beginning.
The US disaster was not caused by a science project, or China despots, or bureaucrats, or propagandists. It was caused because ignorant, gullible populations allowed it. Failure of the education system.
Many people recognized the frauds quickly, some came around to the truth eventually, some never will. The important question is why you can fool some people all the time. Why did some panic, and why are some still panicked? Maybe they can't be saved, and will forever be a drag on society. But knowledge is the real superpower. Save the schools to save civilization. It's hard to fool someone who knows better.
It's 2022 the CCP is locking down cities. Isn't that proof that this measure doesn't work? Also studies are out showing covid spread fast in lockdown. In prisons, covid spread. Going medieval on covid didn't stop the spread of covid. Early treatments of covid saved lives though. The CCP didn't save lives by starving people to death by sealing them inside their homes.
Given the history that’s so well laid out here, it’s confusing to say that no western country had lockdowns in their pandemic response plans. If the seed was planted at the CDC in 2004 and lockdown-equivalent social distancing was part of their pandemic policy, that was effectively a government plan. And as we’ve seen, CDC easily held sway over more the conservative plans that had been endorsed at national and state levels.
As the dust clears from this disaster, it seems most important to enforce the conventional processes, which were used for those ignored pandemic plans, on the CDC itself. Bring experts from all fields together to debate and form a consensus policy that is ultimately subject to elected representatives for approval. The CDC, if they’re not completely disbanded, must not be allowed to write their own public policy a bubble.
On top of that, state of emergency laws must be reworked, or simply revoked.
I wonder what the effect of voluntary measures would be, if people embraced the idea that staying home when unwell is kind to the community? Fever scans were also done in some places. What is the effect on the reproduction number R0? Those measures could have "flattened the curve" without shredding civil liberties.
Some trivia for the curious:
Robert Glass was at Sandia National Laboratories when his daughter wrote the code for the science fair project. The program was basically a probability algorithm. It produced odds of an event given a set of data. The program simulated the common cold in a school environment. Her argument was that based on the simulation the school should close for the winter during peak flu season.
What’s interesting is that it was the kind of programming Glass did at Sandia. The thing to note here is that Glass wasn’t just a friend to Hatchett and Mecher, he was also a fellow researcher at a lab known for its contribution to computational biology.
There’s a paper Glass co-authored with his wife in 2006 “Targeted Social Distancing Design for Pandemic Influenza” Emerging Infectious Diseases Vol 12 November 2006.
Beware of physicists branching out into epidemiology. https://www.aps.org/publications/apsnews/202005/challenge.cfm
"Meanwhile, Goldenfeld and Maslov began modeling the effects of a lockdown on the entire state of Illinois. With little time to perfect their models, and flawed data available to them, they decided against modeling specific lockdown strategies, such as shutting down schools. Instead, they left the strategy vague—whatever it was, the model assumed it would reduce transmission of the virus by some factor. Assuming that the state would implement the strategy, they then asked, what would be the consequences of delaying implementation?"
...
On March 18, they sent the results to the governor’s office, along with a “strongly worded” memo that Ansell authored. “We both agreed the most important measure was for the governor to order the shelter-in-place,” says Ansell.
https://www.quantamagazine.org/the-hard-lessons-of-modeling-the-coronavirus-pandemic-20210128/
"For a few months last year, Nigel Goldenfeld and Sergei Maslov, a pair of physicists at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, were unlikely celebrities in their state’s COVID-19 pandemic response — that is, until everything went wrong."
The same people who say that lockdowns work never even stopped to question how China controlled the outbreak by only locking down Hubei despite cases having been reported in every province in China at that point. Seriously though, how TF do they explain the seemingly overnight stop of transmission in Beijing (despite over a 1000 reported cases on January 25, 2020) when Beijing never locked down? Same for Shanghai. It’s absolutely maddening.
Exactly. The brainlessness is just bewildering.
No reports from socialist governments are reliable. From any government, actually.
Great post for those who want a deep dive into this history. Important, thanks! Masking and social distancing is a way of playing to people's deep psychological insecurities. It establishes those directing these as superior to the ordinary "germ laden" citizen. In case we as Americans failed to get the message from our governments, corporations, institutions - the message was elaborately, professionally telegraphed by Biden & Co at Independence Hall recently.
How is it that such a draconian and unproven practice was imposed on Western democracies? Can we not rip the MSM a new one?
Excellent question. We really should.
I think we're actually all satrapies of the CCP.
You are doing extremely important work. I don't even believe that the doomer cult saying everybody is equally guilty and spinning a global conspiracy is much more than fabrication to distract from work of journalists like you.
Thank you El Koraco! I agree.
"Distancing" never made sense to me. A virus so small it can literally hang in still air for a couple weeks somehow won't travel further than a magical 6', won't affect someone while they are actively eating or drinking, won't attack them before an 8pm curfew, etc etc etc. Anyone who can critically think should have been able to figure out that something wasn't/isn't right about this whole mess from the beginning.
Very true, it was all meant to be humiliatingly nonsensical propaganda from the start.
Indeed, all of these arbitrary limits make no sense to an airborne virus that by definition ignores such limits.
Ferguson jumped into bed w/his married lover during lockdown tells us everything we need to know. Elites & bureaucrats are the enemy of freedom.
Indeed, Professor Pantsdown is the ultimate hypocrite, as is Hatt Mancock as well. "Social mistressing" to the max. Fie upon them both!
I kept waiting for Surgisphere to enter the 14 y/o's storyline. ;-)
Excellent deep dive as usual.
Thank you Ajax!
The US disaster was not caused by a science project, or China despots, or bureaucrats, or propagandists. It was caused because ignorant, gullible populations allowed it. Failure of the education system.
Many people recognized the frauds quickly, some came around to the truth eventually, some never will. The important question is why you can fool some people all the time. Why did some panic, and why are some still panicked? Maybe they can't be saved, and will forever be a drag on society. But knowledge is the real superpower. Save the schools to save civilization. It's hard to fool someone who knows better.
Current China lockdowns are to prevent more runs on their banks.
You are probably right about that.
It's 2022 the CCP is locking down cities. Isn't that proof that this measure doesn't work? Also studies are out showing covid spread fast in lockdown. In prisons, covid spread. Going medieval on covid didn't stop the spread of covid. Early treatments of covid saved lives though. The CCP didn't save lives by starving people to death by sealing them inside their homes.
Indeed, lockdowns are apparently so effective that they have to keep doing them over and over again.
Given the history that’s so well laid out here, it’s confusing to say that no western country had lockdowns in their pandemic response plans. If the seed was planted at the CDC in 2004 and lockdown-equivalent social distancing was part of their pandemic policy, that was effectively a government plan. And as we’ve seen, CDC easily held sway over more the conservative plans that had been endorsed at national and state levels.
As the dust clears from this disaster, it seems most important to enforce the conventional processes, which were used for those ignored pandemic plans, on the CDC itself. Bring experts from all fields together to debate and form a consensus policy that is ultimately subject to elected representatives for approval. The CDC, if they’re not completely disbanded, must not be allowed to write their own public policy a bubble.
On top of that, state of emergency laws must be reworked, or simply revoked.
This is brilliant. Thanks so much! I was fooled by the "school project" narrative.
I just with that every single voter that supported the home arrest of other people dies quickly. Every one of these bastards.
I wonder what the effect of voluntary measures would be, if people embraced the idea that staying home when unwell is kind to the community? Fever scans were also done in some places. What is the effect on the reproduction number R0? Those measures could have "flattened the curve" without shredding civil liberties.